MEMORANDUM

TO: Local Planning Agency

FROM: Bill Spikowski

DATE: January 13, 1997

SUBJECT: LPA Meeting of January 21, 1997

The following back-up material is being submitted to you in preparation for the comprehensive planning portion of your meeting of January 21^st, which will be held at 12:00 P.M. at Town Hall:

1. Carol Cunningham's review of previous community design studies for Fort Myers Beach.
2. Some demographic data for Fort Myers Beach, extracted from the 1990 Census.

Regarding the demographic data, it is somewhat dated at this point but the 1990 Census remains the most definitive source of population and housing data. (I have previously supplied you with estimates of growth since 1990 based on building permit activity.) Census data is based on a complete count of every housing unit within what has become the Town's boundaries, including mobile homes and RVs. Only hotels and motels were not counted.

At our previous meeting, we discussed the difficulties in determining the peak population in a resort community. The Census counts people at their place of usual residence. At Fort Myers Beach, this results in 62% of all housing units being classified as vacant, either because their owners are counted elsewhere, or because the units are rented out to a succession of non-residents.

Despite the Census system of counting only permanent residents, the Census can still be helpful in estimating the peak population. This is because all "vacant" housing units are counted, and most are occupied during the peak season. We would be left with the task of determining their average number of occupants per unit during peak season and their vacancy rate at that time.

A formula for calculating peak population (not including day visitors) would therefore include the following components:

Permanent Residents (1990 Census, plus residents in new homes)

+

Vacant Housing Units multiplied by Average Unit Occupancy

multiplied by Occupancy Rate in the Peak Period

+

Occupants of Hotels and Motels in the Peak Period

+

Guests in Homes of Permanent Residents in the Peak Period

The most difficult number to estimate would be "guests in homes of permanent residents." Occupancy rates for "vacant housing units" could be based on occupancy rates in permanent housing units (but this may be inaccurate if the average "vacant" housing unit accommodates more people than the average "permanent" housing unit).

Of course the number of day visitors is even more difficult to determine. Some useful data has been developed by Florida Transportation Engineering in its December 1992 origin-and-destination survey of motorists entering Estero Island. That study estimated that 65% of all vehicles were driven by persons not living on Estero Island either full or part time, and only a small percentage of those did not stop on the island. These figures and recent traffic counts could be used to produce a rough estimate of day visitors, although it would not show the highest number of those visitors at any one time.

These complexities are the reason that unsubstantiated peak population figures are so often accepted without question.